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ГОЛОСОВАНИЕ НА САЙТЕ
Какая страна, на Ваш взгляд, примет больше беженцев-черкесов из Сирии?
Российская Федерация
Соединенные Штаты Америки
Ни та, ни другая
СМС-помощь


Аслан Шаззо на сервере Стихи.ру
(Notes of not-economist)

From edition: This article was written two years ago for one of republican newspapers. But, as it is might be guessed, its publish had not been dared then. Still it was widespread in printing among high-ranking officials of Adygeya. However another thing might be interesting. In the article it is spoken about the nearest two years that already passed.

Let's begin, perhaps, with the point

First there were more but sometimes till now in the republican mass-media an attempt of comparison of Adygeya with Switzerland appears. It can be, for example, in a program about competitions on sports orientation in Maykopsky district on the republican TV. Say, we have ecological conditions ideally coincide with Swiss ones, therefore to sportsmen who had taken part in competitions in Adygeya, would very easily compete in Switzerland. And in this connection we cannot forget the pre-election slogan of the president of Adygeya about Adygeya’s transformation into “Russian Switzerland”.

Well and what have we got since the beginning of race beyond Switzerland?

Quite clear that to set such "harp or even "witty" question you should not have any special wisdom. So it is possible to joke infinitely long but let's all the same try understanding what would be really possible to make for transforming Adygeya into a second Switzerland. And in the beginning let’s simply compare them.

First of all, it is necessary to recognize that population of Switzerland 15 times more than Adygeya one. This fact as though has no special importance but it should be considered, as that is also the question about the country with rather numerous population, let alone its history and traditions. Besides, all uncontestedly out of the field of comparisons, so to say, "bottom Adygeya" (located along southern coast of Kuban and Laba rivers) drops because such polluted ecology and spoiled landscape is not found not only in Switzerland but also in the rest countries of the world. That is the area of Adygeya - minus all districts of the republic, except for two – Giaginsky and Maykopsky where Maykop enters. The population of this part is about 250 thousand, so, needs to tell that it is possible to compare Adygeya only with some modest canton of above-mentioned Switzerland.

But we agree to make such comparison. So, give transform this part of Adygeya in the Swiss canton. Even virtually. Naturally, the first that occurs is to reproduce external attributes of Switzerland. The climate and the nature quite correspond, people are competent: everyone has secondary - and a fair share has higher - education. So as to the formal attributes everything seems to converge. It is necessary to add that enables Switzerland to earn so much money and to have one of the highest of standards of living in the world. Clearly, that it is nature, banks, hotels, cheese. The nature as we have agreed, already is. However, as to the forests they are still cutting out, so the similarity of the nature disappears. There is cheese, by the way, too, and it is bought not very badly. But we shall leave it alone for a moment (let’s talk about it separately) for now we shall think over the main indications Adygeya has not to look like Switzerland.

Banking, tourism and hotels

Let's imagine that for some kind of insanity several tens of the world largest banks had occurred to found in Maykop their offices and branches. Let’s presume they have employed people in these banks… And what’s then, dear reader? Whether we will suffice imagination to continue? Whether in mind any bad pictures appear? With "disputes of managing subjects", with bankruptcies organized from state structures, with submachine gunners in black stockings not where stockings supposed to be but on head? With firing and kidnappings for reception of repayment when on "business" “guest performers” from all Caucasus will gather in Adygeya? But this all will be in the case when we have a very strong imagination.

But if to be absolutely honest, erection of those banks would end at once. It would not go further plundering of everything in the zero phase of building works. They would not have time to put in pawn foundations, and the town would be left for some decades with dug streets, foundation ditches and disordered equipment. Perhaps, the author of these words does not understand anything in economy but, apparently, banking would do nothing at our place. Anyway – for nowadays, as we have to see as the prospect of some nearest years.

Well, then we shall talk about tourism and hotels. We shall not repeat about "plundering", we shall admit that it at construction stage of hotels and any tourist attractions like the pendant road in Sochi we managed to prevent stealing. Let it be…What’s then? It would be necessary to involve clients, to provide servicing of Swiss level; in general, to form the entire business infrastructure.

We would have to employ European management and Asian personnel. Our people cannot do even the simplest work even for decent wages of 400-500 dollars a month. No, certainly, if to ask them, they could work honesty for such payment and to serve at the world level prosperous tourists (such kind of tourists in mountain resorts usually stay), they with readiness would answer “Sure!”. But they would not manage…

For this reason to transform Maykopsky district into something like a Swiss canton, we would have to refuse all its present population, and invite western or some already successful Moscow and Petersburg firms. They would have constructed hotels there, having employed Ukrainian, Moldavian and Turkish builders. Then in available tourist objects European, Chinese and Indian personnel would be working. They would earn those 400-500 dollars, save on their habitation and send a half of earned money for their numerous families to Bangladesh or Sichuan province.

Well, but if from all this "Switzerland" we would get nothing, then what is the point of it?… If about "point" we have already mentioned, as we have agreed, we shall have a talk about cheese later.

Our people are competent

Whatever one may do, it turns out to be that everything depends on us. Let it sounds severely - in quality of human material. Our man would not be humiliated and fawn upon a foreign tourist. W-oud-not! He is too proud for that. Those who are younger and quicker would try to take at once entirely both a tourist, and contents of his purse; those who is more senior would not go at all, preferring timber-stealing or collecting fruits in woods. And if they also got a job, most likely, only to carry something away - except for the salary.

Yes, not only poor men but also rich steal among us. And, maybe, that is the main trouble. Therefore we shall try to bring them too under the category - "people". But if to speak about dependence of the level of larceny on incomes - in sense of inversely proportional communication between the phenomena - it is necessary to exclude at once all the same persons with very great incomes. A very rich person would not steal lesser only because he started receiving more. A rich person either steals, or not - without any dependence on his incomes. We must look at the ways he got such incomes. If he’s, for example, a rock-star, or a successful financier, a stock exchange player, a talented manager like Bill Gates or took in the newest technologies like Khazret Sovmen, then it’s all right. In that case he doesn’t steal. But if he’s not then even his salary is a kind of legal theft.

As to the opinion that the level of larceny among needy people is substantially caused by low incomes of their families, we should agree all the same. Moreover, to lower the level of larceny of the people, it is necessary to raise the level of their incomes. These words mustn’t understand at all as crimes’ justification as an appeal to not punish thieves at all. But it should be understood that having the level of income not providing a simple family’s survival, they any way would steal.

However there is one more very serious difference of our people not only from Swisses but from all other mankind. Anywhere in the world there is no such break between educational level and incomes of the poorest half of the population. Our majority is already competent in the second and third generation. Find any other country in which general literacy would come more than 60 years ago, and the poor part of society would live at the level of African countries. Here is the gap between knowledge, potential, outlook of people and impossibility to come out from poverty also which is the main difference of our people from Swiss or everyone not-Swiss. That’s why people are proud and won’t go in servicing for rich tourists, and would prefer to steal, to dig in own kitchen garden or to try to "draw own business".

A man makes money or… ?

Now we shall return to that part of our comparisons with Switzerland where we have agreed that Adygeya has much lesser the population. About what, actually, quantity of people we are talking? We shall tell, in Adygeya there are approximately 100 thousand families, 30 percent of the poorest make 30 thousand families. We shall assume that these families have their income beginning to increase in one thousand rubles a quarter within two years. Unimportantly which ways such increasing happens. Let it will be increase of the salary of the family’s supporter, let his wife trades with poisoned fish on the road "Krasnodar-Djubga", let already grown up children somehow earn additionally or let someone simply gives them money. How much money would it be?

The additive to the income of the first quarter would make 30 million rubles or about 1 million dollars for the whole republic. The additive of each next quarter also in one million dollars would make 8 million in total. If to count as accruing result, the total sum of extra charges of incomes would make 35 million dollars for the whole two-year- period (at the rate 31r. / $) or 1080 million rubles.

Certainly, the structure of this poorest part would vary. With increasing of incomes and as a result of the changes some families would become not so poor as a result of extra charges and own efforts on increase of incomes, and any more prosperous, on the contrary, to get in number of already concerning as poor.

How would it affect in general economic and moral conditions of the republic? Usual objections to such reasoning are reduced to charges in incompetence of the author and his imaginations, in threats of inflation, "Dutch disease", etc. Maybe, they are right if to speak about all Russian economy. Though, we should say that exactly such "competent" economists had led Russia to greater ugliness, than notorious inflation and "Dutch disease". For some reason, as they said, expenditure by nouveau riches of fabulous sums for magnificent entertainments in the capital does not result inflation, as expenditure by poor men much smaller sums for family proforage would necessarily lead to terrible inflation. Let it be so, in scales of all Russia indeed.

But we speak about a tiny republic which population is comparable to the population of one average-sized “sleeping area” of Moscow or St.-Petersburg. The accelerated increase in incomes of the needy part of Adygeya inhabitants even up to average Russian level for Russian economy is not fraught with any fatal consequences. Therefore with pure conscience and in confidence that we do not harm Russia any way, we shall dream up further.

How would it change our economy?

Even though it is not an economy at all, of trays and shops trade would quicken, their suppliers would quicken, partially, in that measure in what it is focused on the home market; industry would be stimulated. In any case the most part of this additional consumption would also increase incomes of fine and average business. And so – link by link upward.

However, despite of importance of increase in solvent demand of population, the main thing all the same is not in it. The part of the population which already finally have lost courage, not believing that whenever to it would get out of their oppressive, absolutely demoralizing poverty, would quicken and start moving. Maybe, not the whole one maybe only the most vigorous among the poor but they would cause a part of others.

Certainly, the social and property inequality anywhere wouldn’t disappear at all. But thus it would smooth out a little; and the unfair party of this inequality (when poverty is caused by simply external conditions and, having got in the poverty one time, not one person all his family loses chances for the best life for ever) would be eliminated.

So, the price of the measure we have defined - 35 million dollars within two years totally - not so great money even for such poor republic. We shall recollect in this connection the following, Adygeya president had stated about his readiness "to invest in republican economy" 1 billion rubles a year. And that is the same sum. Therefore we shall assume that there is the money all the same; and it should go for this sacred business. Then there is a question - how to give it to those whom they are intended for? How to avoid such experience, as distribution of 100-million interest-free credit to agriculture whereas structures created for its realization, needed 25 million rubles additionally? It is easy to imagine what bureaucratic orgy, what bureaucratic law-break the sum 10 times more would cause. The measure would degenerate in continuous abominableness that turn out in something much worse.

Therefore the most simple means which, by the way, very much corresponds the modern economic mythology – is creation of workplaces – would mean spending these means as "investments". Certainly, investments are necessary indeed, for example, two-three new, modern large and competitive manufactures in Adygeya territory would suffice solving the biggest part of the economic problems of republic. But, first, apparently, nobody in the foreseeable future do not intend to build them; secondly, such manufactures would involve a mass of new population from outside that someway does not correspond the entry conditions of our reasoning. Well, thirdly, it should be many such investments to solve social problems for long enough prospect as it was made, for example, in Khanty-Mansiysk national district.

What there to do?

First of all, it seems to be understood that the main success criterion of economic policy should become increase in incomes of the poorest one-third of Adygeya population. All the apparatus of authority, the entire, excuse for expression, “elite” should understand that a criterion of success, the work quality criterion, "pleasure" of creativity - there should be one thing: creation of conditions at which the poorest would start living better. The authority exists for to help weak and to not prevent working of strong.

How would it do? There are different measures: increase of the minimum level of payment, help household, creation of any sort of associations and cooperative societies and so on. But if we speak not about simple distribution of cash money, and about prize of measures which can lead to accelerated growth of incomes in the deprived part of society the whole billion rubles would not be required. It because of incomes in the budget would increase, economic turn would be accelerated. In general, "the effect of the animator", colorfully described in Keynesian textbooks would be created.

The main thing in fact is not a number of measures as a whole but the entire approach. Of course, first of all, it is necessary to study sources of incomes of poor families. And obligatorily to make these data popular, clear for not-economists. To put it briefly, sharp reduction in number of the poor should become the national problem. However, here we do not “open any America”, such policy was spent and spent by all nowadays developed countries. They also became rich in many respects owing to such policies.

Well, but what about cheese?

In the end about cheese, desirable, Adygeyan

Meanwhile that is a unique product with which Adygeya is competitive not only in Russia but also in the neighboring countries - " Adygeyan cheese". Owing to some mysterious, so to say, mystical coincidence of circumstances the cheese is one of the success factors of Switzerland. Isn’t it strange? We were running up beyond Switzerland, and here found out that we have a cheese, too. Surprisingly that nobody thought seriously to develop it. No government sat, no ministers shivered on the carpet. Well, not a soul, to no one, anybody!

Usual, trivial cheese manufacture of several shops in Adygeya gets busy two-three tens workers in each one in total. Besides around such manufacture some tens workers delivering milk and semifinished cheese are grouped. A couple of tens intermediaries keep around too. We may say that owing to this business several hundreds of families in the republic are feeding. Earnings of workers, in comparison, for example, to Krasnodar, are small - about two thousand rubles for a worker. Still approximately as much workers thieve. Experts and intermediaries earn more. Well earning (from the local point of view) owners of manufactures have. But in fact Switzerland, we shall agree, not was constructed in one day.

But anyway, we shall sum up our conversation. We, certainly, shall catch up with Switzerland. Not at once, naturally, but we shall catch up. The main thing is to eliminate the most scandalous differences, the most shouting contrasts. It is not necessary to develop economy in some special ways, it will grow by itself, if to not stir it. It will grow like Adygeyan cheese. In fact that is just a reserve, a symbol - our cheese. For certain there are still more many other spheres of business where the republic could appear more competitive, than other regions of the country.

And the extra-poverty, or scanty incomes of competent, able-bodied people is, finally, not an economic but a social, cultural, and ethical problem.

Ahmed Shazzo, Moscow.

Опубликовал administrator, 10-10-2005, 20:43. Просмотров: 1195
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